A Computer Model Of The U.S. Navy Unrestricted Line Officer Promotion Process.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis develops a model that accurately portrays the U.S. Navy Unrestricted Line Officer promotion process. The pertinent aspects of the promotion process have been defined and incorporated in a personal computer based program that is capable of estimating promotion statistics over several years. The program is designed to provide the user with a framework for forecasting promotion statistics over a span of years. This framework is based on the most recent information on officer inventories, continuation rates, and Navy manpower and promotion policy. The program interface allows the user to control all of the values necessary to project promotions permitting the examination of the effects of diverse input estimates on long term promotion statistics. Model validation was accomplished by running the model over past years promotion cycles and comparing the model results with the actual results. The model was tested using plausible assumptions about officer inventories and current manpower policy to examine the impact of the drawdown on the time it will take to promote.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Computer Programming and Software
- Military Forces and Organizations