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An Automated Cost Uncertainty Program.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUIS ITION MANAGEMENT
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The purpose of this research was to develop a menu driven, computer program that implemented methodologies for cost uncertainty analysis. Cost uncertainties have been quantified using either simulation techniques or through heuristic means. Simulation techniques require time to run the required number of iterations. Current computer based heuristic methods do not check correlation matrices for consistency nor do they enable the analyst to perform querys. This research resulted in the development of an automated heuristic cost uncertainty program which alleviates the limitations of current computer programs. The program contains a file editor for creating and modifying data files, a cost uncertainty module for computing decile level total system cost probabilities and a query function. The FORTRAN computer program is completely menu driven for ease of use.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE