Accession Number:

ADA285038

Title:

An Assessment of Forecasting Methods: Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement (CLSSA) Investment Items

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT

Report Date:

1994-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

163.0

Abstract:

The United States US promotes collective security in the Free World via the Foreign Military Sales FMS program. FMS customers prefer to acquire weapon system logistic support through FMS rather than by direct commercial vendor support. Ninety-seven percent of the follow-on logistics requirements are submitted via a special program called Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement CLSSA. CLSSA, while sound in theory, has been a poor performer. The USAF must modify the CLSSA program or risk losing future FMS to competing nations. Modifying CLSSA to utilize an automated forecasting process will greatly improve customer service. Efficient and timely logistic support is a key decision factor as friendly nations evaluate the source of their next major weapon system acquisition. The US as a whole will gain from the USAFs new approach to CLSSA through the political, military and economic benefits that remit from increase FMS demand for US weapon systems. This study measured the relative accuracy of four time series forecasting methods in predicting future demands for CLSSA Investment Items. The double exponential smoothing, adaptive response, and classical decomposition were compared to the AFSAC retention model to determine the impact of changing to an automated method. The results favored the implementation of the AFSAC retention method with some minor modifications in the weighting scheme, rounding rules, and demand smoothing. Forecasting, Reparable items, Inventory management, Retention, Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement CLSSA, Foreign Military Sales FMS.

Subject Categories:

  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE