Accession Number:

ADA285012

Title:

Scenario Analysis: An Integrative Study and Guide to Implementation in the United States Air Force

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1994-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

142.0

Abstract:

With the uncertainties in the current Air Force environment, extrapolated forecasting methods are no longer sufficient for meeting the Air Forces strategic planning needs. The Air Force could benefit from using a more sophisticated method to determine the opportunities and obstacles it will face in the future. The key characteristics that distinguish scenario analysis from other forms of forecasting are the qualitative, contextual descriptions of the future environment, and the identification of several possible futures. This thesis discusses the concept of scenario analysis and its relevance to the Air Force as a strategic planning tool. It begins with an overview of strategic planning and forecasting concepts. The current literature on scenario analysis is then integrated into a single reference discussing general concepts, construction methodologies, and corporate applications. The various approaches to scenario analysis are compared and incorporated into a composite model. Appropriate applications of scenario analysis within the Air Force are discussed, and a step-by-step guide is presented to assist Air Force managers and planners in implementing scenario analysis. Strategic planning, Environmental analysis, Forecasting, Scenario, Scenario analysis, U.S. Air Force

Subject Categories:

  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE