A Study to Determine if Newly Developed Budget at Completion (BAC) adjustment Factors Improve the Success of Prevalent Index-Based Estimate at Completion (EAC) Techniques
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT
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The purpose of this study was to develop Budget At Completion BAC adjustment factors BAFs which, when used in conjunction with existing Estimate At Completion EAC techniques improve the success of existing EAC techniques. These factors attempted to account for changing contract requirements which are certain to occur on DoD contracts. These changing requirements often result in a need to add scope and budget to a contract or can cause contract cost overruns requiring additional budget. Improving the success of these EAC techniques is increasingly important because of the budget cuts being experienced by the DoD in todays changing economic environment. An accurate estimate of future costs is necessary to ensure adequate funding levels to meet DoD requirements. The BAFs were constructed by compiling actual data from 534 DoD contracts. They were then used with existing EAC techniques to predict final contract completion costs. Descriptive statistics were used to determine if the BAFs improved the success of these EAC techniques. Unfortunately, the BAFs did not increase the success of the EAC techniques. Although these particular factors did not improve the success of these EAC techniques research is still needed in this area. Accurate estimates of contract costs is still important. Cost estimates, Cost models, Data bases, Cost analysis, Estimates at completion.
- Administration and Management
- Economics and Cost Analysis