A Decision Modeling Perspective on U.S. -Cuba Relations
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
Pagination or Media Count:
This study applies a framework for analyzing the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict to current U.S.-Cuba interactions. Based on previous RAND studies of Saddam Husseins decisional processes and of Castros mind-set, the key elements of this analysis consist of developing two alternative images of Fidel Castro and positioning that both images exhibit substantially, if not purely, rational characteristics. This study has two central objectives. The first is to model, in a semiformal manner, Fidel Castros likely reasoning. Next, guided by insights derived from decision modeling, implications for U.S. policy are considered. The second objective of this endeavor is to test the decision theory developed at RAND during the Gulf crisis against a case whose critical elements are only now beginning to unfold. Cubas current situation, viewed from the perspectives of the alternative models, appears as either serious or grave. Both images employed in this analysis suggest that Castro will have to choose his predominant strategy from among three major paths, or courses conciliating, hunkering down, or confronting. In an effort to broaden the decision modeling effort, the next step in the research applies the same analytic framework to American decision making. It results in the delineation of three plausible strategic approaches for the United States in its dealings with Cuba easing up, staying the course, or increasing the pressure.
- Government and Political Science