Security in North Africa: Internal and External Challenges.
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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The emotional reaction across North Africa during the Gulf War, and the deepening turmoil in Algeria as the country grapples with an assertive Islamic movement, have awakened Western interest in the prospects for stability along the southern shore of the Mediterranean. The alarming demographic imbalance between north and south and the resulting flow of migrants to an increasingly inhospitable Europe is now a feature of the European security debate. To these concerns must be added the risk of nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation emanating from Libya and Algeria. Among foreign and security policy elites and publics in southern Europe, France, and to a growing degree in Europe as a whole, it has become fashionable to refer to a new arc of crisis in the south. Previous RAND reports have charted this new aspect of the European security environment and the significance for U.S. policy. The North African dimension of the evolving security situation in the Mediterranean was not systematically explored in these reports, except as it was reflected in the views of southern Europeans. This report attempts to fill this gap, focusing on regional developments as seen from the south. The report discusses the prospects for stability in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, identifies regional flash-points, and assesses the implications for U.S. policy.
- Government and Political Science