Stochastic Analysis of Facilities Hardened Against Conventional Weapons Effects
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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A procedure is developed which returns a probability of kill of a hardened facility taking into account two types of uncertainties weapon delivery accuracy and structural characteristics or intelligence uncertainties. The kill criteria are based on the structural response of the facility exceeding predetermined limits which represent the achievement of the attack objective. Analyst tasked to perform pre-attack weapons analysis and post-attack weapons effectiveness must be able to report to their superiors realistic probabilities of achieving the objective of an airborne strike on a target. A nonlinear, nondimensional, continuous hysteretic beam model is developed to represent a section of a hardened facility subjected to conventional weapons effects. The model returns response calculations across the height of the section as required to provide information for determining the kill state of a hardened target. The nondimensionalization allows for ease of parameter input and serves the stochastic analysis well where structural characteristics are continuously changed. Two Monte Carlo simulation programs are developed which take into account structural characteristics as random input variables in addition to the traditional weapon delivery accuracy. This work demonstrates that uncertainties in the structural characteristics of a target may significantly effect its response to conventional weapons and the determination of the resulting probability of kill given an attack.
- Statistics and Probability
- Computer Programming and Software
- Structural Engineering and Building Technology