Accession Number:

ADA280123

Title:

Tests of an Improved Oceanographic Expert System

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1994-05-04

Pagination or Media Count:

10.0

Abstract:

For 8 years the Naval Research Laboratorys Remote Sensing Applications Branch has been developing an oceanographic expert system OES that models some aspects of the kinematics of the Gulf Stream and its associated eddies. The OES uses a rule base to provide ring-motion forecasts and a neural network to forecast Gulf Stream motion. Previous work showed that OES forecasts of ring motion are at least as good as those produced by other methods. Recent work led to improvements in the ring-motion geometry equations, replacement of the Gulf Stream motion logic, and the addition of a natural-language explanation facility. The first two changes required retuning of the OES. The changes were designed to remove linear trends in the mean forecast position errors for noninteracting with the Gulf Stream rings. This report presents a comparison of the present systems performance with prototype and improved parameters. For noninteracting rings, the improved system provides ring-motion forecasts that are superior to a no-motion assumption 75 or more of the time for both warm-core rings and cold-core rings, for both 7-day and 14-day forecasts. The forecast ring positions are within 20 km of the true positions. This report provides more complete information on the OES and the test results. Eddies, Gulf Stream.

Subject Categories:

  • Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
  • Cybernetics
  • Fluid Mechanics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE