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An RSM Study of the Effects of Simulation Work and Metamodel Specification on the Statistical Quality of Metamodel Estimates
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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This research investigated the combined influence of simulation work and metamodel specification on the statistical quality of the estimates obtained from the resulting metamodels of the simulation data. A 9 x 2 x 2 experiment consisting of 9 cases of simulation work, 2 levels of metamodel specification, and 2 levels of design fractionation were designed for 8 different configurations of MMk queues. The only observed statistic for this experiment was the average queue length. Simulation estimates for each configurations average queue length were calculated directly from the simulation data. In addition, the metamodels were fit to the simulation data and were used to estimate the average queue length for each configuration. Residuals were calculated for each estimate as the difference between the analytic solution for average queue length and the given estimate. The residuals were analyzed graphically and via Single-Factor ANOVA to determine if the amount of simulation work or metamodel specification affected the statistical quality of the estimates. This research showed conclusively that the amount of simulation work had no significant effect and that the metamodel specification had a significant effect on the statistical quality of the estimates obtained from metamodels. Response surface methodology, Computer simulation, Least squares regression, Experimental design, Metamodel, MMk Queues.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE