Accession Number:

ADA277271

Title:

Probabilistic Prediction of Late-Time Nuclear Clouds

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept. 1 Sep 1990-31 Mar 1993

Corporate Author:

TITAN SYSTEMS NJ INC PRINCETON A R A P GROUP

Report Date:

1994-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

125.0

Abstract:

Developments, applications, and evaluation of the SCIPUFF Second- order Closure Integrated PUFF model are presented. The model uses turbulence closure theory to relate dust cloud dispersion to measurable statistics of the velocity field, and also contains a prediction of the uncertainty in a model prediction arising from the random velocity fluctuations. SCIPUFF has been extended to include a complete tensor description of the second-order spatial moments, allowing an accurate representation of the shear-induced distortion of a cloud. The model also incorporates observational velocity spectra information and an option to use a relative diffusion prediction has been implemented. An extensive evaluation exercise has been conducted using the Across North America Tracer Experiment ANATEX. Surface dose samples and short term aircraft samples were predicted and reasonably good agreement obtained. Some skill was also demonstrated in a prediction based on a climatological average of the wind field, i.e., no detailed information about the flow. Dust cloud, Turbulence, Nuclear cloud, Probabilistic prediction, Atmospheric diffusion, Transport and diffusion, Uncertainty

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Nuclear Weapons

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE