Accession Number:

ADA275914

Title:

An Analysis of Estimate at Completion Models Utilizing the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary Database

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1993-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

145.0

Abstract:

This study explores the widely held assertion that DOD contract Cost at Completion is bounded below by the Cost Performance Index-based Estimate at Completion EAC and above by the Schedule Cost Index-based EAC. Descriptive statistics determined the floor and ceiling for 321 DOD contracts. The results confirmed that the Cost Performance Index-based EAC is a reasonable floor and the Schedule Cost Index-based EAC is a reasonable ceiling for EAC formulas. For the contracts considered overall, on average, the Cost at Completion was not bounded by the floor and ceiling. The range of EAC formulas evaluated tended to slightly underestimate, the Cost at Completion on average. Results were tested for sensitivity to Index Type Cumulative, six-month and three-month, Program Phase. Contract Type, Branch of Service. System Type, Major Contract Baseline Changes and Management Reserve. Graphs of the EAC ceilings and floors for several contract categories illustrate trends in program status throughout various states of contract completion, These graphs should assist, program analysts in providing program managers with reasonable contract completion cost estimates for contracts in various categories across all stages of contract completion. Estimate-at-completion, Costschedule control system criteria, Forecasting, Estimating.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE