Scenario Analysis: Applications and Extensions
Final rept. 28 Sep 1992-27 Sep 1993
WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON DEPT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
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The primary aim of this work was to enhance the method of scenario analysis for decision-making under uncertainty. An effect of such enhancement could be to help the Army make better decisions in situations involving resource allocation under uncertainty, particularly those involving force and weapon mix issues. Scenario analysis models employ a finite probability distribution describing different scenarios that is, possible states of the decision environment, and they then compute solutions that optimize against these scenarios according to some appropriate decision criterion. For example, one might seek a decision that provided maximum expected performance on some measure of effectiveness, subject to various operational constraints which can be different in different scenarios, or one might look for a decision providing minimum variance in performance across scenarios, subject to a floor on expected performance. Various supporting studies were also carried on to improve the underlying optimization methodology that supports the scenario analysis paradigm. These included work in stochastic optimization and in nonsmooth optimization, as well as in Bayesian analysis for estimating value in military system testing.
- Operations Research