Prototype Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts Using a Mesoscale Model
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System RAMS in this configuration to develop a prototype terminal aerodrome forecast TAF. RAMS was developed at Colorado State University and is being used to simulate convection over central Florida using a nested grid model where the smallest grid has a horizontal spacing of 5 kilometers. To obtain meaningful results a 2.5w cumulus parameterization scheme was used which is different than the traditional schemes. The model performed a 12 hour simulation. The coarse grid had a horizontal grid spacing of 80 kilometers and covered the southeastern United States. The second grid has a horizontal grid spacing of 20 kilometers. The third grid was centered over the Kennedy Space Center Florida. The placement and size of the third grid was used to evaluate the usefulness of a producing model-aided TAFs. One of the problems facing the forecasting community is how to prepare a TAF, the aviation communities forecast, with the current numerical weather prediction products. The NGM parameterizes convection on this scale while the 2.5w parameterization can explicitly resolve features on the 5 kilometer scale. This increased resolution will greatly aid in the production of aviation forecast. As a demonstration the RAMS model output will be used to produce a TAF for Kennedy Space Center.