Accession Number:

ADA273924

Title:

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Studies Process

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1993-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

138.0

Abstract:

This thesis developed a method to bound cost estimates with a prediction interval of costs for the Remedial InvestigationFeasibility Study RIFS phase of the Installation Remediation Program IRP process. The prediction interval provides a reasonableness cross check for RIFS project cost estimates. To develop the cost bounds, three major activities occurred. First, a database was developed from RIFS projects managed by the Army Corps of Engineers. Second, a regression cost model was developed from the observations in the database. Third, a prediction interval specified at the 70 percent confidence level was derived from the cost model. This prediction interval provides a method to cross check RIFS cost estimates. The prediction interval also provides a heuristic to bound RIFS point estimates to incorporate uncertainty. There are limitations to the cost model which affect the use of the cost intervals. The observations used to develop the cost model were limited to RIFS projects whose field activities only included soil boring and monitoring well activities. The cost intervals should only be applied to similar type projects. Cost Uncertainty, RIFS, ENVEST, Installation Restoration Program IRP, Environmental cost estimating

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE