Influence of Uncertainty and Time Stress on Decision Making
Final rept. Jun-Dec 1986
DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA
Pagination or Media Count:
This project studies the effects of uncertainty and time stress on the decision making of experienced Army officers playing the role of a division operations officer analyzing courses of action in a tactical scenario. Thirteen lieutenant colonels LTC were presented with a defensive scenario a Fulda Gap scenario and asked to analyze three courses of action and make a final recommendation. After being given time to familiarize themselves with the scenario, seven of the participants were given 45 minutes for their analyses time-stress condition, after which participants made their final recommendations. Data were collected on the information participants used to perform their analyses. No-stress participants compared with time-stress ones spent more time on information that was relevant to resolving uncertainty and providing a big picture of their mission, used more analysis methods to arrive at a recommendation, and tended to recommend less conservative courses of action. These results suggest that under conditions of uncertainty and time stress, aiding concepts are needed that supplement the breadth of analysis and deliver information more efficiently so that decision makers will be able to use all relevant information.
- Administration and Management