Thunderstorm Forecast Study for Eglin AFB, FL
AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER SCOTT AFB IL
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This report describes the evaluation of an empirical technique WINNDEX for predicting air-mass thunderstorms at Eglin AFB, FL. Results showed that the WINNDEX objective forecast technique had a Heidke skill score of .18 in predicting thunderstorm activity on the Eglin Range complex. A discriminant analysis model was developed that improved this skill to .32 in predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms during four 3-hour periods beginning at 1200Z. The study demonstrates the utility of USAFETACs lightning database in developing and verifying a thunderstorm forecast model for remote locations.