Accession Number:

ADA263423

Title:

Thunderstorm Forecast Study for Eglin AFB, FL

Descriptive Note:

Project rept.

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER SCOTT AFB IL

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1993-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

48.0

Abstract:

This report describes the evaluation of an empirical technique WINNDEX for predicting air-mass thunderstorms at Eglin AFB, FL. Results showed that the WINNDEX objective forecast technique had a Heidke skill score of .18 in predicting thunderstorm activity on the Eglin Range complex. A discriminant analysis model was developed that improved this skill to .32 in predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms during four 3-hour periods beginning at 1200Z. The study demonstrates the utility of USAFETACs lightning database in developing and verifying a thunderstorm forecast model for remote locations.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE