Markov Chains for Random Urinalysis 1: Age-Test Model
Final rept. Sep-Dec 1992
NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTCENTER SAN DIEGO CA
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Since any drug abuse impacts readiness, health, and safety, continuing evaluation and improvement of the Navys program is required. One method of improving the Navys program is to develop and analyze alternative testing strategies. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRC proposed a urinalysis testing strategy based on time since last test. That is, the probability of a person being tested depends on the amount of time since the person was last tested. Southern California Edison SCE has implemented a variation of the NRC proposal. Urinalysis testing strategies based on time since last test are defined by a high testing rate for personnel not yet tested in a given time period and a low testing rate for previously tested personnel with negative results in a given time period. The probability distribution of random urinalysis tests is modeled under a general class of age-test urinalysis strategies. Age-test is a particular Markov chain with the probability of being tested defined as a function of time since last test. The NRC proposal, the SCE program, and current Navy practice can all be modeled as age-test Markov chains. Various age-test strategies are analyzed.... Probability, Random urinalysis, Detection, Drug abuse.
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