An Investigation into the Causative Mechanisms for Explosive Cyclone Development Over the Atlantic
Final rept. 1991-1992
NAVAL ACADEMY ANNAPOLIS MD
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Explosive cyclogenesis is defined as the rapid intensification of a marine cyclone at the rate of 24 mb in a 24 hour period Sanders, 1980. Such cyclones produce very intense storms which result in gale-force winds, heavy precipitation, and severe sea states along the East Coast of the United States. Green 1988 suggested that an atmospheric inversion or lid may play an important role in the explosive development of marine cyclones. The atmospheric lid condition is present prior to and upwind of cyclone development. This study examines three ERICA, the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic, cases for the presence of the atmospheric lid condition. Results show that the lid condition was present 12-48 hours prior to explosive cyclone development in ERICA cases IOP 4 and 5, while the lid condition was not present in the control case, LOP 6P. Moreover, the prediction of explosive marine cyclones would be improved with the use of operational numerical weather prediction models, such as the Nested Grid Model, provided these models have adequate vertical resolution....Cyclones, Cyclone forecasting, Dynamic meteorology.