Cuba and the United States: Thinking about the Future
ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
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The author re-examines some of the fundamental premises underlying U.S. policy in Cuba and the growing socioeconomic crisis on the island. He argues that, under current conditions, a normalization of relations is neither desirable nor likely. There is a well-organized, well-funded constituency for firmness against Castro and no real constituency for dialogue. Beyond this, the author argues that the end of the Castro regime will not resolve all of the Cuban policy dilemmas facing the United States, but it will pose difficult new ones such as a massive flight of Cubans from the island, possible civil war, and a need for enormous economic and humanitarian aid. Given these realities, the author concludes that the United States would be well advised to concentrate less on how to oust Castro -- an event which must occur sooner or later in any case -- than on how to deal with his doleful legacy once he has gone.
- Government and Political Science