European Security in the 1990s: Uncertain Prospects and Prudent Policies
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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The rapid and extreme changes taking place in Europe-most prominently, the breakup of the Soviet empire and the reunification of Germany- have led to an environment of extreme, multidimensional uncertainty. This uncertainty demands a focus on adaptive short-run planning that is sensitive to the underlying factors and that responds to prudent policies. This Note therefore has three purposes To restate the case for adaptive short-run planning for Europe at a time of rapid change and great uncertainty. To structure systematically a set of underlying factors that should be considered in all current planning for European security, whether short or long run. By examining such factors rather than immediate events, its utility as policy analysis may last more than a month or two. To suggest precepts for prudent policies appropriate to current uncertainties. The short-run emphasis advocated here is not present as a precept for all occasions. Europe is a much better place now that we have won the Cold War. Nonetheless, the uncertainties stemming from the current radical turn in history are widespread, with many of them based on the economics of a continent reconstructing itself.
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