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Middle-Term Aggregate Model for Projecting Air Force Enlisted Personnel

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The Middle-Term Aggregate MTA model is the component of the Enlisted Force Management System EFMS that projects force structure and cost for the aggregate enlisted force total force across all specialties. The model makes annual projections up to nine fiscal years into the future. The MTA model can be used to examine the force structure and cost implications of the enlisted force that would result from user specified choices of management actions and economic scenario. The force projections carry enough information to describe the enlisted force by category of enlistment, grade, and years of service. At the users option, the MTA model can provide monthly details within specified fiscal years. The projections depend upon planned management actions and a background economic scenario. The MTA model accepts user choices of the following management actions for each fiscal year of the projection Accessions, Percent of force receiving enlistment bonuses, Early releases, Forced early reenlistments, and Promotions to the top five grades E-5 through E-9. Accessions control gains to the enlisted force. Reenlistment bonuses and early releases control losses from the force. Promotions control the grade distribution of the force. The MTA models projections also are conditional upon user-specified projections of two economic conditions for each fiscal year Civilian unemployment rate, and Ratio of military wages to civilian wages. The higher civilian unemployment and the higher the ratio of military wages to civilian wages the greater the propensity of enlisted personnel to remain in the enlisted force at the end of each term of enlistment.

Subject Categories:

  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Military Forces and Organizations

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