The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling
DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY ARLINGTON VA
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The DOD is becoming critically dependent on combat models including simulations and war games-even more dependent than in the past. There is considerable activity to improve model interoperability and capabilities for distributed war gaming. In contrast to this interest in model-related technology, there has been far too little interest in the substance of the models and the validity of the lessons learned from using them. In our view, the DOD does not appreciate that in many cases the models are built on a base of sand. Nor does it appreciate that while replacing the sand with a more nearly solid foundation is feasible, it will be extremely difficult in scientific, intellectual, and managerial terms. Many models and tools are simply inadequate. Further, that are seldom verified or evaluated well, there is confusion about what the models assume and do, and there have been many wasted efforts and lost opportunities.
- Computer Programming and Software
- Military Forces and Organizations