A Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Technical Risk
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
This thesis examines the problems affecting the quantitative assessment of technical risk in Department of Defense major weapon systems acquisition. A decision Theory approach is used. Commercial techniques and current DoD methods of technical risk assessment are investigated. TASCFORM TM technology values are used in a linear regression model to characterize the growth of technology over time. The model residuals provide a probability distribution for estimating the likelihood of achieving a specified level of technical performance. The benefit of a utility function describing technical risk perceptions is considered. The Expanded Pearson-Tukey method of describing risk is also investigated. Continued research into technology valuation techniques is recommended. A test case application of the Expanded Pearson-Tukey method is also recommended, to determine its ability to provide reliable and timely quantitative technical risk information. Weapon System Acquisition, Decision Theory, Risk Assessment, Technical Risk, Utility Theory.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics