Accession Number:

ADA255130

Title:

A Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Technical Risk

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1992-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

153.0

Abstract:

This thesis examines the problems affecting the quantitative assessment of technical risk in Department of Defense major weapon systems acquisition. A decision Theory approach is used. Commercial techniques and current DoD methods of technical risk assessment are investigated. TASCFORM TM technology values are used in a linear regression model to characterize the growth of technology over time. The model residuals provide a probability distribution for estimating the likelihood of achieving a specified level of technical performance. The benefit of a utility function describing technical risk perceptions is considered. The Expanded Pearson-Tukey method of describing risk is also investigated. Continued research into technology valuation techniques is recommended. A test case application of the Expanded Pearson-Tukey method is also recommended, to determine its ability to provide reliable and timely quantitative technical risk information. Weapon System Acquisition, Decision Theory, Risk Assessment, Technical Risk, Utility Theory.

Subject Categories:

  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE