Asia's Challenge to American Security,
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLL WASHINGTON DC
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We are in a crucial period of transition in Asia, when the structures of the Cold War still stand largely intact and their replacements are still being debated. In this issue of NBR Analysis, Richard Ellings and Edward Olsen address the question of regional leadership and Americas future role in Asia. They assess the likely major challenges presented by the region through the turn of the twenty-first century and systematically examine the alternative national strategies available to United States policymakers to meet those challenges. The future of leadership in Asia will be determined significantly by the relative economic and military resources available to the great powers of the region. As the authors point out, however, leadership will also be shaped by the initiatives, or lack of initiatives, that come out of Washington, D.C as well as by the foreign policies emanating from Tokyo, Beijing, and other Asian capitals. Decisions made in the next few years will determine whether leadership is expressed through bilateral or multilateral institutions or less formal arrangements, and whether it will continue to be based primarily on American security guarantees or a new distribution of responsibility Doctors Ellings and Olsen argue that economic challenges have largely supplanted security ones for probably a decade or more and that United States national strategy has not made a sufficient adjustment to the new conditions. This study, the second of an NBR Analysis series on the future of Asia, was prepared as a background paper for the workshop -Asian Security Issues in Transition to the Twenty-First Century. The meeting was sponsored by the Defense Intelligence College and NBR and held March 19-2.
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