Higher Order Probabilities
ROCHESTER UNIV NY DEPT OF PHILOSOPHY
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A number of writers have supposed that for the full specification of belief, higher order probabilities are required. Some have even supposed that here may be an unending sequence of higher order probabilities of probabilities of probabilities... In the present paper we show that higher order probabilities can always be replaced by the marginal distributions of joint probability distribution. We consider both the case in which higher order probabilities are of the same sort as lower order probabilities and that in which higher order probabilities are construed as frequencies and higher order probabilities are construed as subjective degrees of belief. In neither case do higher order probabilities appear to offer any advantages, either conceptually or computationally.
- Humanities and History
- Statistics and Probability