Accession Number:

ADA247632

Title:

Persistence in Climate

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.,

Corporate Author:

MITRE CORP MCLEAN VA JASON PROGRAM OFFICE

Personal Author(s):

• MacDonald, G.

Report Date:

1992-02-01

Pagination or Media Count:

70.0

Abstract:

Persistence in weather forecasting is used to describe runs of several days with similar weather characteristics. This general notion of persistence is extended to long term records of climate by examining the scaling properties of the range, maximum minus minimum, of the integral or sum of observed or calculated variable. The values of persistence, P, are limited by existence considerations to -1 P 1. For P 0, the increments making up the sum are uncorrelated, independent variables. Values of P near unity represent a tendency for long runs of similar values. Observed global average annual temperature records exhibit strong positive persistence even when linear trend is removed. A hundred year CCM run CCM-1 shows vanishing persistence perhaps indicating that the real oceans give rise to runs of several years or decades with similar climate characteristics while the model ocean fixed by seasonal means does not.

Descriptors:

• *WEATHER FORECASTING
• *CLIMATOLOGY
• WEATHER
• MODELS
• INTEGRALS
• FORECASTING
• RECORDS
• TEMPERATURE
• CLIMATE
• METEOROLOGY
• OCEANS
• GLOBAL
• VARIABLES

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE