Accession Number:

ADA243968

Title:

An Analysis of Tracking and Impact Predictions

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1991-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

57.0

Abstract:

The accuracy of the United States Space Commands early Tracking and Impact Predictions and its OPREP-3 report initiation procedure are analyzed. The study involves satellites which decayed between 1987 and 1990. Each of the early decay predictions are compared to the final prediction with the resulting time error compared to the accuracy level asserted by the Space Surveillance Center. The results of this study indicate that the accuracy of the decay predictions is usually, but not always, within the asserted accuracy level. The results also suggest the existence of a positive bias indicating that the early decay predictions are routinely late relative to the final decay prediction. Six multiple linear regression models were then developed in an attempt to improve the prediction process. It was determined that incorporating the developed regression models into the prediction process would substantially improve the decay predictions. It was also determined that the OPREP-3 report initiation decision should continue to be made six hours before decay, but that it should also incorporate the developed regression models and widen its error window.

Subject Categories:

  • Unmanned Spacecraft
  • Spacecraft Trajectories and Reentry

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE