A Model for Estimating Aircraft Recoverable Spares Annual Costs
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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This thesis covers three objectives 1 develop a background reference document concerning recoverable spares cost estimating 2 evaluate a representative sample of existing spares cost models and 3 use aircraft physical and performance characteristics to develop a model for estimating annual replenishment spares cost. A condemnations cost estimating relationship CER was developed first and then both a CER and spreadsheet generated factors which related condemnations to replenishment spares costs were developed. For the condemnations CER, only logarithmic transformations provided statistically acceptable results, and even these models exhibited wide prediction intervals due to large amount of variability in the CER databases as evidenced by the number of outliers. The CER relating condemnations to replenishment spares costs was a poorer statistical performer. Spreadsheet generated factors showed that the ratio of replenishment spares requirements to condemnations exhibited a downward trend across the data years.
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies