Predicting Enlistment Behavior from Stated Intentions and Demographic Characteristics
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis uses a logit model to predict enlistment probabilities using stated intention measures and background characteristics from a sample of nearly 20,000 men age 16 to 21, who responded to the Youth Attitude Tracking Study II YATSII survey for the years 1984 through 1989. Those respondents who volunteered their social security number during the survey were matched with Military Entrance Processing Station Reporting System records to determine their actual enlistment behavior. The YATSII survey contains both aided and unaided mention questions designed to gauge the respondents intentions and motivations toward military service. This study finds that measures of propensity are significant determinants of enlistment behavior, but that their effectiveness may have diminished somewhat from previous studies. The data suggests that 10 percent of the most positive propensity men enlist compared to the 36 percent found in a study conducted with data eight years earlier than that used in this study.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Test Facilities, Equipment and Methods