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Fleet Forecasts for the United States to 2020

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Final rept.

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The world commercial shipping fleet is due for considerable revamping over the next ten years as vessels age forces increased scrapping and new building. At the same time, world trade is forecast to grow, in general terms, at real rates in excess of real GNP growth in both the industrialized and the developing worlds. Therefore, there is likely to be increased demands on the commercial fleet calling at U.S. ports. In order to assess the size of these changes and their potential impact on the fleet calling on U.S. ports, the United States Army Corps of Engineers commissioned a study to formulate a fleet forecast that is consistent with the economic and trade prospects for the United States. The statistical distribution of vessel sizes that will serve U.S. ports is a critical assumption in Cops of Engineers planning studies to determine potential benefits of harbor improvement projects. The planning horizon for such studies requires fleet forecasts that go beyond those routinely used for shipping industry purposes . The forecast is limited to vessels serving U.S. foreign trade, but is based on analysis of worldwide shipping supply and demand. Global seaborne trade projections were developed and a model developed that related supply to demand and accounted for vessel redeployments, retirements, and additions to fleet capacity.

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  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Surface Transportation and Equipment

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