Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Interim rept. 1 Sep 1988-31 Dec 1989
COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY
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Three empirical studies on judgment and decision making in dynamic tasks were carried out during the period 1 September 1988 to 31 December 1989. Subjects were expert research meteorologists. Topics were forecasting a hail, b microbursts, and c convection initiation thunderstorms at an airport approach. Primary findings were as follows in the hail study, meteorologists forecasts were closely approximated by a weighted-sum model in the microburst study, experts who worked together for years, when tested in work conditions, did not agree on the judgments of principal cues in the convection study, more accurate forecasts were made on high stress than low stress days, thus contradicting the conventional wisdom. Two annotated bibliographies were produced the effects of stress on judgment and decision making, and the effects of variation of display formats on judgment and decision making.