Technical Notes on Risk and Uncertainty in Early Comparability Analysis.
Final rept. for period ending Jan 90,
ARMY TRADOC ANALYSIS COMMAND FORT BENJAMIN HARRISON IN
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In the early phases of the materiel acquisition process, Subject Matter Experts SMEs may be the only source for data on a conceptual weapon system. In these early phases, the Early Comparability Analysis ECA methodology provides a tool for identifying the Manpower, Personnel, and Training MPT resource intensive tasks e.g., the high drivers on currently fielded systems that the conceptual system will replace. Various documents related to Manpower and Personnel Integration MANPRINT and the Concept Formulation Process CFP discuss risk and uncertainty. By expanding these concepts and using some theoretical considerations, the ECA method can be extended to provide a probabilistic estimate of the uncertainty of the SMEs opinion and the risk of the proposed system. The process which determines the risk and uncertainty probabilities can then be worked backward to determine the high drivers as well as the source for risk and uncertainty. Hypothetical data from a very small sample of SMEs is used to illustrate the riskuncertainty process. The method incorporates a consideration for importance values or weights in the determination of riskuncertainty values probabilities.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies