The Modeling of Employment Decisions for Peacetime Contingency Operations
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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This research provided the conceptualization of a model that can be used to aid the operations planner in choosing employment strategies for peacetime contingency operations. The model uses object-oriented design and is constructed in two levels. The top layer of the model is a decision analytic model which provides a framework within which to structure the employment decision. It enables the user to quantify the probabilities of random events and the preferences of the commander and determine how these factors influence the decision. A Game Theory model is used to determine the probabilities with which the Red commander will adopt a particular strategy. The lower level of the model is an object-oriented adaptation of SOTACA which incorporates PANTHERs methodology for evaluating popular support. This portion of the model allows the user to evaluate the results of the strategy chosen in the top layer in a more detailed combat model. This paper also identifies further research that must be performed in the modeling of non-combat activities that are an integral part of low-intensity conflicts.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics