An Expert System Approach for Prediction of Maritime Visibility Obscuration
NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS
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An Expert system for Shipboard Obscuration Prediction AESOP, and Artificial Intelligence AI approach to forecasting maritime visibility obscurations, has been designed, developed, and tested. AESOP is rule-based, using backward chaining. The current version, AESOP 2.1, has 290 rules and has been designed in terms of nowcasts 0-1 hr and forecasts 1-6 hr. An extensive explanation feature allows the user to understand the reasoning process behind a particular forecast. AESOP has been evaluated against 100 independent test cases, in which clear, hazy, or foggy conditions are predicted. The overall performance of AESOP is 68 correct. This value indicates considerable forecast skill when compared to 36 for random chance. When the distinction between clear and haze is ignored, the expert system correctly forecasts 79 of the FogNo fog situations.