Estimates of Available Aptitude as a Consequence of Demographic Change
Interim technical paper May 1990-Mar 1991
ARMSTRONG LAB BROOKS AFB TX
Pagination or Media Count:
The effects of demographic trends on aptitudes of service eligible youth were estimated for the years 1980 through 2010. Census estimates of subpopulation dynamics were used to project the number of available youth in the prime ages for military service. Aptitude was measured using the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery ASVAB. Two trends emerged. First, the absolute number of enlistment eligible youth decreases from 1980 to a nadir in 1995, and although it climbs slowly after 1995, it remains below the 1980 cohort size through 2010. Second, each of the measures of aptitude shows an average decline through 2010. Such changes have the potential to affect Air Force recruiting and training policy.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations