Damage Expectancy Uncertainties for Deeply Buried Targets
Technical rept. 1 Jan-10 Jul 1989
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPALEXANDRIA VA
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This targeting uncertainties methodology quantifies the effect of systematic errors on the targeting prediction measure damage expectancy. The methodology, developed specifically to support the SEPW Phase 2 Study, evaluates and ranks the effect of uncertainties for applications involving a single buried target and a single earth penetrating weapon. This methodology models the penetration of the EPW, the ground shock environment, and the probability of damage to the underground target. Potential error sources treated in the methodology are impact velocity, geology, depth of burst, target hardness, ground shock prediction model, ground shock depth-to-effect, weapon aiming accuracy, distance damage prediction model, and target depth, location and size. The methodology makes minimal use of assumed distributions and Monte Carlo techniques instead it uses three points to describe the inherent dispersion for all but one error source. The values are sorted and used to define a distribution for DE. In addition, and analysis of variance technique is used to calculate the relative contributions of each error source to the uncertainty in DE. The added benefit of ranking the error sources in terms of their contribution to the uncertainty in DE can provide insight into deeply buried targeting problems.
- Nuclear Weapons