Accession Number:

ADA235876

Title:

Variation of Historical Casualty Rates with Battle Dates

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. Mar 1990-Mar 1991

Corporate Author:

ARMY SOLDIER SUPPORT CENTER FORT BENJAMIN HARRISON IN

Personal Author(s):

• Arebalo, Cathy J.

Report Date:

1990-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

41.0

Abstract:

This document is the final report on a study of the variation of historical casualty rates with battle dates. Considerable disagreement exists regarding the relevance of historical casualty rates in planning for future battles because of the impact of technological advances. This study was designed to determine if technological advances have any significant relationship with casualty rates by statistically analyzing historical casualty rates over time from the period of 1937 - 1983. Hypothesis tests were performed to measure if a significant relationship exists between historical battle dates from 1937 - 1983 if there is a significant difference among casualty rates across different decades and if there is a significant difference among casualty rates across different conflicts. Findings are based on an extensive statistical analysis of casualty rates and battle dates derived from the HERO database. The conclusions offer an insight into considering the relevance of historical casualty rates as a predictor of future casualty rates, despite recent technological advances, within a conventional land battle scenario.

Descriptors:

• *TEST AND EVALUATION
• DATA BASES
• SCENARIOS
• LAND WARFARE
• PREDICTIONS
• RATES
• CASUALTIES
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• HYPOTHESES
• BATTLES

Subject Categories:

• Humanities and History
• Weapons Effects (Biological)
• Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE