The Decision Dilemma -- Cognitive Bias
Individual study rept
ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
Pagination or Media Count:
Military decision-making at the national level is a formidable task. The environment is ambiguous and constantly changing. Intelligence systems, as good as they are, will never provide perfect information. The stakes involved range from the loss of thousands of lives to the sovereignty of the nation. Faced with this difficult task, the military decision-maker often has to rely on intuitive processes to arrive at a final decision. One of the magnificent qualities of human beings is the ability to integrate a vast array of factors weighing on a situation and come up with a viable solution. This process involves a great degree of intuitive judgment. While there are many examples of great military decisions made substantially on the basis of intuition, there is also a down side to this phenomenon. Research has shown that there are cognitive biases which can adversely affect the decision-making process. This paper provides an analysis of these biases and offers practical suggestions on how to reduce their effects.