Conventional Forces in Europe: Effective Verification
ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
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With the start of negotiations on conventional force reductions in Europe, the East and West will be able to reduce rather than increase forces in Central Europe for the first time in forty years. The unilateral withdrawal and reduction of conventional forces in Eastern Europe by the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact nations has already started a shift in the military balance. When these changes are carried out as announced and then followed by more reductions as proposed in the initial rounds of the CFE talks, the change in the military balance will be dramatic and the threat to security and stability will be greatly reduced. An effective and reliable verification system to monitor these changes will be critical to strengthening security and stability in Central Europe. This study summarizes the verification evolution in arms control agreements reviews NATOs initial proposal discusses verification standards and identifies verification technologies, methods, and lessons learned from the CDE accord and INF Treaty. It also analyzes the effectiveness of the proposed measures, and identifies options for implementation. The study concludes that the proposed measure, if applied realistically and systematically within the region, can constrain threatening military activity and provide early warning of military significant actions. Automation and monitoring are identified as two stages of the verification process in which NATO can develop and coordinate an implementation strategy to ensure effective verification.
- Government and Political Science