Determinants of the Effectiveness of Situation Estimation
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis contains a discussion of the estimate of the situation as a decision-making process. The author provides a background on the estimate of the situation as a process and in individual, group, and organizational decision making. An information-processing model for an organization demonstrates the need for a match between information-processing requirements and capabilities. Information processing requirements include factors from technology, inter-unit dependence, and the environment. Information capabilities consist of unit structure and integrating mechanisms. As the information-processing requirements approach a high level of uncertainty, the capabilities must match. The appropriate decision-making procedure to use varies with the change in uncertainty. The estimate of the situation procedure works well in highly uncertain situations but is very time intensive. Alternate methods can accommodate reduced uncertainty or reduced time available. Evaluations of staffs may not consider the context or situation in which the staff operates. The situational factors incorporated in a staff evaluation are useful in an accurate assessment.