Integration of Navy R&D Program Data: Are There 'Families' of R&D profiles?
CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIV
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In response to tasking from OP-98, CNA is undertaking a review of technology initiatives that will support the development of Navy systems into the middle of the 21st century. The ultimate goal of this effort, Quo Vadis Phase II, is to present OP-98 with an investment strategy that minimizes unevenness in Navy research and development expenditures over time and is consistent with projections of future RD funding. Specifying models for cost profiles of substantially new systems is more challenging. In these cases, it will be necessary to identify commonalities in the technological requirements, system function, and platform support between the new system and historical programs. Ideally, one would like to develop a theory of RD cost profiles, based on historical data, that could be generalized to substantially new situations. This paper is an effort to specify models for RD cost profiles of Navy systems. It examines the following as alternative methodologies for modelling cost profiles 1. Average cumulative distributions of program cost and time 2. Descriptive statistical models based on curve fitting to historical data 3. Theoretical models of cost profiles estimated using historical data.
- Administration and Management
- Statistics and Probability