Application of Influence Diagrams in Identifying Soviet Satellite Missions
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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This thesis investigates the feasibility of applying influence diagrams to capture expert knowledge and incorporate decision theory to construct a Soviet satellite mission prediction model. Before a Soviet launch occurs, formulations of the models prior probability distribution allows the input of expert knowledge and any available information. As the predictive variables of the model become known, the information is used to successively refine the estimate of the probable mission, thereby, reducing the uncertainty in the model. Discretizing is used to approximate continuous variables as discrete variables which successfully allows the combination of both variable types in a single influence diagram model. Results of testing and recommendations for continued research are presented.
- Antisatellite Defense Systems