Accession Number:

ADA230600

Title:

Multiple Forecasting Techniques

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY ALEXANDRIA VA OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OFFICE

Personal Author(s):

• Roberts, Benedict C.

Report Date:

1990-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

55.0

Abstract:

The Defense Logistics Agency DLA currently employs the Standard Automated Materiel Management SystemSAMMS under a mode which forecasts demand for all quarterly Forecast DemandQFD Items through the use of a single forecasting technique. This approach for these QFD items has been shown previous analysis to result in long term forecasting errors. The result of these errors in forecasts is that DLA has consistently maintained higher safety levels which has contributed to the presence of excess on-hand stocks. Consequently, the overall thrust of this analysis has been to enhance the forecasting methodology of SAMMS by exploring alternative forecasting techniques which would have the potential to enhance the accuracy of long term forecasts. The project has succeeded in the development of a multiple forecasting methodology which has the capability to select the most appropriate forecasting technique for each QFD item.

Descriptors:

• *FORECASTING
• SAFETY
• ERRORS
• METHODOLOGY
• ACCURACY

Subject Categories:

• Administration and Management
• Operations Research
• Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE