Historical Development of the Estimate of the Situation
ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ALEXANDRIA VA
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This report traces the development of the U.S. Armys estimate of the situation as described in consecutive editions of the Army Field Manual, FM 101- 5, Staff Organization and Operations. Nine editions and one unpublished draft of FM 101-5 were studied, beginning with the first edition published in 1932. The goal was to find out what led to the original form of the estimate and to judge the stability of the estimate across time. In the six topic areas investigated, the basic tenets remained remarkably stable. Detail was added to the descriptions of procedures through 1968, with relatively little detail added in the three subsequent editions. The unpublished 1977 draft of FM 101-5 contains interesting deviations from the basic tenets. These deviations are also discussed.
- Command, Control and Communications Systems