Accession Number:

ADA230075

Title:

Learning Curve and Rate Adjustment Models: Comparative Prediction Accuracy Under Varying Conditions

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Moses, O. D.

Report Date:

1990-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

53.0

Abstract:

Learning curve models have gained widespread acceptance as a technique for analyzing and forecasting the cost of items produced from a repetitive process. Considerable research has investigated augmenting the traditional learning curve model with the addition of a production rate variable, creating a rate adjustment model. This study compares the predictive accuracy of the learning curve and rate adjustment models. A simulation methodology is used to vary conditions along seven dimensions. Forecast errors are analyzed and compared under the various simulated conditions using ANOVA. Overall results indicate that neither model dominates each is more accurate under some conditions. Conditions under which each model tends to result in lower forecast errors are identified and discussed. Keywords Learning curves, Cost estimates, Cost models, Cost analysis, Production rate, Predictions, Forecasting.

Descriptors:

• *PREDICTIONS
• *LEARNING CURVES
• SIMULATION
• METHODOLOGY
• MODELS
• COST ANALYSIS
• FORECASTING
• ACCURACY
• COST ESTIMATES
• COSTS
• ERRORS
• COST MODELS
• PRODUCTION RATE
• CURVES(GEOMETRY)

Subject Categories:

• Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE