A Model to Predict Shopper Reaction to Commissary Stockouts
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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The purpose of this research was to determine whether existing information about out-of-stock behavior could be used to develop a model of the out-of-stock behavior of commissary patrons. The Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Commissary was losing sales because of stockouts. While more inventory was a logical solution, inventory carrying costs and space limitations restricted the amount of inventory that can be carried. This study developed and analyzed product specific and general out-of-stock models which were developed using the SAS discriminant analysis procedure. It was determined that demographics and shopper characteristics provided the best predictors of the decision to substitute and the brand, size, and variety of the substitute product. Although none of the general out-of-stock models were determined to be useful a correct rate greater than 80 percent, three product specific models were determined to be useful. Furthermore, the demographic variables were determined to be much more functional than the purchase situation and shopper characteristic variables. Finally, since the size models generally produced results which were far from desired, this research suggests there is no structured method of predicting size given the three variable types.
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies