Accession Number:

ADA229425

Title:

An Expert System for the Evaluation of Cost Models

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1990-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

150.0

Abstract:

The Air Force forecasts the costs of new weapons systems with mathematical cost models. A shortage of cost analysts leads to limited evaluations of the cost models. Frequently, analysts look only at the statistical properties of the regression and not at the logic underlying the theory behind the cost model or equation. This research gathered expert knowledge about the cost model evaluation process and created an expert system of 79 rules to assist analysts in evaluating cost models. The rules were implemented in VP Expert 2.0, an expert system shell. This expert system was verified and validated using the experts opinion with 80 percent accuracy. The expert system increased evaluation accuracy which leads to an improved weapons system budgeting process. KR

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE