Accession Number:

ADA229248

Title:

Edward E. Azar's Early Warning Model - Does It Work

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1990-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

98.0

Abstract:

This research focused on whether Edward E. Azars Conflict Prediction Model could accurately predict the start of the Iran-Iraq War in September 1980 andor the start of the Falkland Island War between Argentina and Great Britain in April 1982. The research takes 24 months of data before the start of the two wars and separates the data into two 12 month segments. The first 12 months of data was scaled according to Azars 13-Point Intensity Scale and input into the computer statistical program statistix to try to produce constants that could be used on the second 12 months of data to try to predict the start of the two wars. The database used was the United States Naval Academys Worldwide Events Interaction Survey WEIS data. The data was transformed from the WEIS scale into the Azar scale and cross-referenced for consistency.

Descriptors:

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE