Accession Number:

ADA220801

Title:

Reduction of Variance in Expert Panel Estimates of U.S. Army Combat Vehicle Crew Endurance

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

ARMY AEROMEDICAL RESEARCH LAB FORT RUCKER AL

Report Date:

1990-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

46.0

Abstract:

An expert panel was assembled to explore the effectiveness of a novel method for reducing the variance of face-to-face group estimates. The panels task was to estimate the effects of selected physiological and psychological variables on Army aviation and armor combat vehicle crews during representative combat missions. These missions were considered separately for two levels of individual protective equipment. The ESTIMATE-TALK-ESTIMATE method with an impartial group facilitator was used to control the process. The results from the panel demonstrated the effectiveness of this face-to-face, consensus-based method for reducing the variance of their combined estimates. The overall mean percentage reduction of the coefficient of variation was 39.8 plus or minus 0.8 percent. Keywords Expert panel Endurance physiology Predictions Chemical warfare defense Human performance degradation Group process Modeling Combat vehicle crews.

Subject Categories:

  • Stress Physiology
  • Combat Vehicles

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE